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Record information and status
Record ID
Date of creation
2012-05-10 16:21 UTC (dina.abdelhakim@cbd.int)
Date of publication
2012-05-10 16:21 UTC (dina.abdelhakim@cbd.int)

General Information
Problem Formulation and Hypothesis Testing for Environmental Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Crops.
Alan Raybould
Author’s contact information
Email: alan.raybould@syngenta.com

Syngenta, Jealott's Hill International Research Centre,
Bracknell, Berkshire RG42 6EY, UK
  • English
Publication date
Summary, abstract or table of contents

Environmental risk assessments can provide high confidence of minimal risk by testing theories, "risk hypotheses", that predict the likelihood of unacceptable harmful events. The creation of risk hypotheses and a plan to test them is called problem formulation. Effective problem formulation seeks to maximize the possibility of detecting effects that indicate potential risk; if such effects are not detected, minimal risk is indicated with high confidence. Two important implications are that artificial test conditions can increase confidence, whereas prescriptive data requirements can reduce confidence (increase uncertainty) if they constrain problem formulation. Poor problem formulation can increase environmental risk because it leads to the collection of superfluous data that may delay or prevent the introduction of environmentally beneficial products.
Thematic areas
  • Scientific and technical issues
    • Risk assessment
Background material to the “Guidance on risk assessment of living modified organisms”
Is this document is recommend as background material for the “Guidance on Risk Assessment of Living Modified Organisms”
Section(s) of the “Guidance on Risk Assessment of Living Modified Organisms” this background material is relevant
Additional Information
Type of resource
  • Article (journal / magazine / newspaper)
DOI: 10.1051/ebr:2007004
Publisher and its location
EDP Sciences
© ISBR, EDP Sciences, 2007
7 page PDF
Environmental Biosafety Research
Keywords and any other relevant information
Keywords: risk assessment / problem formulation / scientific method / certainty / data requirements

Citation: Environ. Biosafety Res. 5 (2006) 119-125