This likelihood reflects the probability that one or more of the risk scenarios that were put forth as part of the risk assessment will be actualised. This can be evaluated at the individual and/ or the population level.

The likelihood of an adverse effect is dependent upon the probability of one or a series of circumstances actually occurring.

It is difficult to describe in detail an evaluation of likelihood or consequence without using an example because the evaluation is dependent on the nature of the LMO, the receiving environment and, if appropriate, on the risk scenario used. The following are two examples.