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Record information and status
Record ID
Date of creation
2012-05-11 18:32 UTC (dina.abdelhakim@cbd.int)
Date of publication
2012-05-11 18:32 UTC (dina.abdelhakim@cbd.int)

General Information
A Quantitative Risk Assessment of West Nile Virus Introduction into Barbados
Douglas KO, Kilpatrick AM, Levett PN, Lavoie MC.
Author’s contact information
Douglas KO
Email: douglas.o.k@medscape.com

Department of Biological and Chemical Sciences,
The University of the West Indies.
  • English
Publication date
Summary, abstract or table of contents

Objective: To present a quantitative risk assessment of West Nile (WNV) virus introduction into Barbados, West Indies.

Design and Methods: Three possible modes were considered: a) WNV infected mosquitoes via air transport, by city of departure, b) WNV infected mosquitoes via marine transport and c) viraemic migratory birds. We estimated the number of WNV infected migratory birds as the product of the proportion of migratory birds infected and the number of migratory birds entering Barbados in three taxonomic groups. We further estimated the number of days these birds would be infectious as:(FORMULA). We then estimated the number (#) of infectious mosquito-days for mosquitoes entering Barbados via air transport as: # infected mosquitoes = (total flights per week/city) x (duration of WNV season) x (number of Culex mosquitoes aboard each flight) x (Culexmosquito WNV infection prevalence) x (vector competence index) x (days infectious) The number of infected mosquitoes entering Barbados via marine transport was estimated using a similar expression as for air transport, except that the number of airplanes and mosquitoes/airplane were substituted with the # of sea containers during a 22-week mosquito season and # of mosquitoes/container.

Results: Migratory birds (~69-101 infected birds/year) were associated with the highest introductory risk followed by mode (a) (~2 infected mosquitoes/year) and mode (b) (0.004 infected mosquitoes/year)

Conclusions: Migratory birds and mosquitoes via air are imminent threats for virus introduction. Impending co circulation of West Nile virus and four strains of dengue virus may present new challenges for public health.
Thematic areas
  • Scientific and technical issues
    • Risk assessment
Background material to the “Guidance on risk assessment of living modified organisms”
Is this document is recommend as background material for the “Guidance on Risk Assessment of Living Modified Organisms”
Section(s) of the “Guidance on Risk Assessment of Living Modified Organisms” this background material is relevant
  • 5. Risk assessment of living modified mosquitoes species that act as vectors of human and animal diseases
Additional Information
Type of resource
  • Article (journal / magazine / newspaper)
ISSN 0043-3144
4 page PDF
West Indian Medical Journal
Keywords and any other relevant information
Citation: West Indian Med J 2007; 56 (5): 394